US Powerball vs. Mega Millions: Odds, Payouts and Which to Play

Two American lottery giants share the same headlines but play very differently under the hood. Powerball runs a 5/69 + 1/26 matrix. Mega Millions runs a 5/70 + 1/25. Tickets cost the same ($2 base in most states). Jackpots both routinely cross $1 billion. So which one is the smarter ticket?

1. What are the jackpot odds side by side?

Game	Matrix	Jackpot odds	Any prize odds	Ticket
Powerball	5/69 + 1/26	1 in 292,201,338	1 in 24.9	$2
Mega Millions	5/70 + 1/25	1 in 290,472,336	1 in 24.0	$2

The headline odds are nearly identical — Mega Millions is 0.6% easier for the jackpot and slightly better for any-prize. That sounds like a tie. The interesting differences are below.

2. How do the secondary prize tiers compare?

This is where the games diverge. Mega Millions made a major change in April 2025: the base ticket became $5 (up from $2), the starting jackpot rose to $50M, and non-jackpot prizes were multiplied by a built-in 2×–10× multiplier on every ticket.

Powerball kept its $2 base ticket and offers a separate Power Play multiplier for an extra $1.

Effective per-ticket non-jackpot expected value (rough, before tax):

• Mega Millions ($5 ticket): ~$1.10 in secondary EV
• Powerball ($2 ticket, no Power Play): ~$0.32 in secondary EV
• Powerball + Power Play ($3 ticket): ~$0.55 in secondary EV

Per dollar spent on secondaries, Powerball is now better value than Mega Millions despite the smaller absolute prizes.

3. Where does Mega Millions still win?

• Easier jackpot (by a hair)
• Bigger guaranteed starting jackpot ($50M vs $20M for Powerball)
• Faster jackpot growth (multiplier-funded raises)
• The 2×–10× multiplier applies to the second-tier $1M prize, turning a "match 5" into $2M–$10M automatically

4. Where does Powerball still win?

• Cheaper entry ($2 vs $5)
• More draws per week (Mon/Wed/Sat vs Tue/Fri)
• Better per-dollar secondary EV
• Power Play is optional — you can decide week by week

5. Which game has the better expected value?

For a typical $1B advertised jackpot (annuity, before tax, before split risk), the EV per ticket comes out roughly:

• Powerball at $1B: EV ≈ $1.45 per $2 ticket (EV/cost ≈ 0.73)
• Mega Millions at $1B: EV ≈ $2.90 per $5 ticket (EV/cost ≈ 0.58)

Powerball delivers more EV per dollar spent at the same advertised jackpot. Both are still negative EV before tax and split risk — this is entertainment math, not income math.

6. How big is the split risk in each game?

At record jackpots ($1.5B+) ticket sales explode and the probability that you'd share the jackpot with another winner rises sharply. Both games have seen 2-way and 3-way splits at the top end. Filtering out popular patterns (birthdays, sequences, last week's numbers) matters more than which game you pick.

7. How much tax do US winners pay?

US federal withholding is 24% on prizes over $5,000; the actual top-bracket rate (37%) applies at filing. State tax varies wildly (0% in TX/FL/CA/WA; ~10% in NY). The annuity-vs-lump-sum decision matters more than the game choice — lump sum is typically ~60% of the advertised annuity.

8. Which game should you actually play?

• You want the best per-dollar value at any jackpot size: Powerball
• You want the biggest starting jackpot and built-in multipliers: Mega Millions
• You want to play both for $7 a week: rational, since they draw on different days and the jackpots rarely peak together

For European players accessing both via licensed reseller services, the per-dollar math is the same — but factor in the reseller markup (typically 5–20%), which can flip both games to materially worse EV than playing your local EuroJackpot or EuroMillions.

See our EuroJackpot vs EuroMillions comparison for the European side of this question, and use the EV tool on your dashboard to see this week's live numbers for all four games.